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Impacts of Alternative Agricultural Investments version 9

LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT SCENARIOS USING IFPRI’S IMPACT MODEL

Impacts of alternative investment scenarios

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) explores policies that can help feed the world, reduce poverty, and protect the natural resource base. Here we examine how alternative investment scenarios affect agricultural production, productivity, and food security for the period 2010-2050 compared to a reference scenario.

For more information on this webtool, including an overview demo, click here.

REFERENCE SCENARIO

The reference scenario is based on “middle-of-the-road” assumptions about changes in population and income along with rapid climate change. The population and income assumptions are based on the IPCC’s Shared Socio-Economic Pathway 2 (SSP 2) in which the global population reaches 9.2 billion in 2050 and average incomes reach USD 25,000 per person. The climate change assumptions are based on the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) and the HadGEM general circulation model (GCM). Investments in the reference scenario are based on historical trends as well as expert opinion about future changes.

 

 

Demand, Supply, and Food Security (values indexed to 2010)

 

 

Mapping Demand, Supply, and Food Security

Country boundary disclaimer: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Agricultural investment scenarios

INTERACTIVE SCENARIOS

Reference scenario

compared to

Agricultural investment scenarios

REFERENCE SCENARIO

REF scenario: Baseline reference scenario: middle-of-the-road socio-economic pathway (SSP 2) and rapid climate change (RCP 8.5/HadGEM)

R & D

HIGH+NARS: High increase in R&D investment across the CGIAR portfolio plus complementary NARS investment       

HIGH: High increase in R&D investment across the CGIAR portfolio          

MED: Medium increase in R&D investment across the CGIAR portfolio              

HIGH+RE: High increase in R&D investment across the CGIAR portfolio plus increased research efficiency            

REGION: Regionally-focused. High increase in CGIAR R&D            

COMPREHENSIVE

COMP: This scenario is a combination of 4 scenarios: HIGH+RE, IX+WUE, ISW, & RMM.              

 

IRRIGATION

IX: Investments to expand irrigation in the developing world  

IX+WUE: Irrigation expansion plus increased water use efficiency

ISW: Investments to Increase soil water holding capacity

INFRASTRUCTURE

Infrastructure-RMM: Infrastructure improvements to improve market efficiency through the reduction of transportation costs and marketing margins  

 

Demand, Supply, and Food Security (values indexed to 2010)

 

 

 

Demand, Supply, and Food Security (values in percentage change)

 

 

 

Mapping Demand, Supply, and Food Security (values in percentage change)

Country boundary disclaimer: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

For more information

These results are drawn from a recent report that provides a quantitative assessment of the impacts of alternative investment options on the CGIAR’s objectives relating to poverty, food and nutrition security, and natural resources and ecosystem services in the context of changes in population, income, technology, and climate to 2050 (Rosegrant et al. 2017). The report was developed in collaboration with scientists from all 15 CGIAR Centers and was intended to inform decision-making by the CGIAR and its partners in relation to agricultural research and development.

Download the report from the IFPRI website
Access the IMPACT data on IFPRI Dataverse
About this webtool

Who we are

This webtool was developed by Soonho Kim, Nicola Cenacchi, the IMPACT modeling team at IFPRI (Keith Wiebe, Tim Sulser and Shahnila Dunston) and the Food Security Portal team (Rob Vos, Betina Dimaranan, Summer Allen, Brendan Rice, and Sara Gustafson).

For any comments or feedback please contact Soonho Kim (soonho.kim@cgiar.org)

Partners

We gratefully acknowledge support from the following partners:

 

 

Funding for the development of this visualization tool as part of the Food Security Portal was provided by the European Comission.

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