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IMPACT - Five climate change scenarios

ong term scenario analysis based on simulations generated through IFPRI's IMPACT model

Global Foresight for Food and Agriculture

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IMPACT model gratefully acknowledges the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets for its financial support of the IMPACT model.


On this sight you can interactively study the impact of various climate change scenarios on agricultural production, productivity and hunger for the period 2010-2050. These impacts can be compared with a reference scenario that assumes no impacts of climate change.


This reference scenario is based on the assumption of no climate change to 2050 (i.e. a constant climate representative of the climate around the year 2005).

The reference projects from IMPACT indicates that global food production will grow by about 70 percent over 2010 levels by 2050. Production will grow more rapidly in developing countries, particularly in Africa.

Climate change

Interactive scenarios

The IMPACT model can simulate how agricultural production and ensuing food security may change under different climate change scenarios. Let’s observe simulation results by choosing between different assumptions (Population & GDP growth; Climate change scenario; technical change) . Currently the output results focus on three main variables ( Population at risk of hunger by country, crop production and crop yield by country/commodity)



Underlying data

IMPACT model